A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
